Projection Process

When I project meets using speed ratings I do it in three ways. The first two ways are simply taking the highest or seasonal rating of each runner and then put them in descending order by place. Typically I'll use seasonal ratings over highest rating, because I feel like it a better indicator of potential performances. The third way I do meet projections is to take all of the ratings run by participating runner and randomly simulate the race 1000 times. I keep the order of finish and then figure out what the average finishing place for all the simulations is for each runner. I use that order of finish to score the meet.

For the state meet projections I will run a simulation for each regional using seasonal ratings to figure out the qualifying teams to sectionals. Then do the same again for the sectional to figure out the state qualifiers. I will post the scores for the regionals and sectionals and then post the full data for the state meet. Since the process is slightly time consuming this will only be updated once the sectional assignments are posted and then right after conference week. There will be full sectional projections the week of sectionals.